Festinger’s 5 Conditions

Condition #1

A belief must be held with deep conviction and it must have some relevance to action, that is, to what the believer does or how he behaves.

Almost all pages and posts begin and end with music. Sometimes it’s related, sometimes not.

It’s an attempt to connect on a human level. Maybe you’ll like the song or the kind of music. Maybe you love the artist and you’ve never heard it before — so I’ve given ya a gift from the get-go.

Something to remind you that we can still share something in common. Let’s start with that.

wouldn’t that be something

On top of all that — I’d think the songs and such would be a nice break. And there’s always something to discover in whatever I’m sharing.

I love people showing me something I didn’t see — as it not only open your eyes in that context, it’s training your mind to look at other things more closely.

I would have never picked up on what’s going on here in The Godfather. I took note of how the other guy’s hands are shaking and Michael’s aren’t, but I didn’t grasp why he paused to look at the lighter like that.

He’s noticing and thinking about why his hands are steady

That’s sharp as a razor! Do we know for a fact that’s what Francis Ford Coppola or Pacino had in mind? Whether he did or not . . .

It’s interesting!

And that’s at the essence of what art is all about. So even if that guy’s wrong — his analysis planted a unique take in your mind.

And that’s a damn fine habit to have.

Note: I later saw Coppola talk about this scene and it was what he intended.

Why is the rocket spinning on a motorized turntable? All along, the tubes were clearly intended for Iraq’s Nasser-81mm artillery rocket — which is a reverse-engineered version of the Italian Medusa.

The rocket is spinning to show the decals of both — and because they were spinning the tubes to manufacture a war. That’s what happened — and there’s no two ways about it.

To take a story this complex and convoluted and boil its essence down to 5 minutes was no small feat:

Trillion Dollar Tube

But since you snicker at concrete evidence of mathematical certainty that would wipe that smug smile right off your face — putting your beliefs where they belong in the dustbins of delusion.

I gotta go with . . .

Well, he loves Johnny Cash, he can’t be all bad.

Condition #2

The person holding the belief must have committed himself to it; that is, for the sake of his belief, he must have taken some important action that is difficult to undo. In general, the more important such actions are, and the more difficult they are to undo, the greater is the individual’s commitment to the belief.

Condition #3

The belief must be sufficiently specific and sufficiently concerned with the real world so that events may unequivocally refute the belief.

Condition #4

Such undeniable disconfirmatory evidence must occur and must be recognized by the individual holding the belief.

The first two of these conditions specify the circumstances that will make the belief resistant to change. The third and fourth conditions together, on the other hand, point to factors that would exert powerful pressure on a believer to discard his belief. It is, of course, possible that an individual, even though deeply convinced of a belief, may discard it in the face of unequivocal disconfirmation. We must, therefore, state a fifth condition specifying the circumstances under which the belief will be discarded and those under which it will be maintained with new fervor.

Condition #5

The individual believer must have social support. It is unlikely that one isolated believer could withstand the kind of disconfirming evidence we have specified. If, however, the believer is a member of a group of convinced persons who can support one another, we would expect the belief to be maintained and the believers to attempt to proselyte or to persuade nonmembers that the belief is correct.

These five conditions specify the circumstances under which increased proselyting would be expected to follow disconfirmation.

— Festinger, Leon; Schachter, Stanley; Riecken, Henry W. (2010-11-12). When Prophecy Fails (p. 4). Pinter & Martin. Kindle Edition.)